Emtia piyasalar\u0131nda tamamlanan haftada, ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131’na ili\u015fkin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenirken, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 enerji arz\u0131 ve lojistik riskleri ile bu risklerin enflasyon ve faiz beklentilerine etkisi fiyatlamalarda belirleyici oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmadan s\u00f6z konusu sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmeye istekli oldu\u011funa y\u00f6nelik haberler ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell’\u0131n temkinli mesajlar\u0131 piyasalarda iyimser bir hava olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ancak hafta sonuna do\u011fru Trump’\u0131n s\u00f6ylemlerini sertle\u015ftirmesi, enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ile tahvil faizlerini y\u00fckseltirken, varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
YATIRIMCININ ODA\u011eINDA 3 KR\u0130T\u0130K GEL\u0130\u015eME VAR<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Analistler, jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra d\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyon ve faiz beklentileri \u00fczerinde makroekonomik verilerin de etkili oldu\u011funu belirterek, gelecek hafta yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ABD’de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri ile Fed’in son toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin tutanaklarda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n TRUMP VE POWELL’IN A\u00c7IKLAMALARI P\u0130YASALARIN Y\u00d6N\u00dcNDE ETK\u0130L\u0130 OLDU<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Beyaz Saray’da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 “Ulusa Sesleni\u015f”te \u0130ran g\u00fcndemine ili\u015fkin g\u00fcncel durumu de\u011ferlendiren ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran’daki askeri hedeflerini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tamamlad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ve yak\u0131nda s\u00fcreci “bitireceklerini” belirterek, “Amerika’n\u0131n (\u0130ran’daki) t\u00fcm askeri hedeflerini \u00e7ok k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde tamamlama yolunday\u0131z ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 2-3 hafta i\u00e7inde onlara \u00e7ok sert bir darbe indirece\u011fiz.” dedi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell da Orta Do\u011fu’da ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda para politikas\u0131nda “bekle-g\u00f6r” yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun bir konumda olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Powell, enflasyon beklentilerinin k\u0131sa vadenin \u00f6tesinde iyi \u00e7\u0131palanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade ederek, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizleri gerektirdi\u011fini, buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k enflasyona y\u00f6nelik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin ise faizlerin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmemesini telkin etti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu iki hedef aras\u0131nda belirgin bir gerilim bulundu\u011funu vurgulayan Powell, zorlu bir d\u00f6nemde “oy birli\u011fi” beklemenin yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n MAKROEKONOM\u0130K VER\u0130LER KARI\u015eIK S\u0130NYALLER VERD\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Makroekonomik tarafta ise ABD’de JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 \u015fubatta 6 milyon 882 bine inerek piyasa beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u0130\u015fe al\u0131m say\u0131s\u0131 da ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde 498 bin azal\u0131\u015fla 4 milyon 849 bine gerileyerek Nisan 2020’den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu veriler, i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bununla birlikte, haftan\u0131n sonunda a\u00e7\u0131klanan mart ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisinin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131 ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesi, faiz indirimi beklentilerini yeniden s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Ancak piyasalar\u0131n kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle s\u00f6z konusu geli\u015fmeler fiyatlamalara yans\u0131mad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilerine g\u00f6re, \u00fclkede tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam mart ay\u0131nda 178 bin ki\u015filik art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 da y\u00fczde 4,4’ten y\u00fczde 4,3’e geriledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu geli\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan ABD’nin 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi y\u00fczde 4,32 seviyesini g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, dolar endeksi de y\u00fczde 0,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 100 seviyesine indi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n DE\u011eERL\u0130 METALLERDE Y\u00dcKSEL\u0130\u015e G\u00d6R\u00dcLD\u00dc<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n De\u011ferli metallerde tamamlanan haftada alt\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde d\u00f6rt haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisi son buldu. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131labilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131, piyasalarda jeopolitik risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar azaltarak de\u011ferli metalleri desteklerken, b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikalar\u0131nda daha yumu\u015fak bir \u00e7izgi izleyebilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik beklentiler de fiyatlardaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Ancak hafta sonuna do\u011fru Trump’\u0131n sertle\u015fen a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu geli\u015fmelerle de\u011ferli metallerde ons baz\u0131nda fiyatlar g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte y\u00fczde 4,7, platinde y\u00fczde 6,9, paladyumda y\u00fczde 9,2 ve alt\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4,1 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n BAZ METALLERDE ARZ G\u00dcVENL\u0130\u011e\u0130 VE MAL\u0130YET BASKISI \u00d6NE \u00c7IKTI<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Baz metallerde s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde fiyatlamalar\u0131n ana eksenini enerji maliyetleri, arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve sanayi zincirine ili\u015fkin belirsizlikler olu\u015fturdu. \u0130ran’\u0131n Bahreyn ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri’ndeki \u00f6nemli tesislere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle al\u00fcminyum taraf\u0131nda arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n K\u00f6rfez B\u00f6lgesi’nin k\u00fcresel al\u00fcminyum arz\u0131ndaki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131, fiziki piyasadaki kayg\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analistler, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin \u00c7in d\u0131\u015f\u0131 k\u00fcresel al\u00fcminyum ihracat\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 18 paya sahip olmas\u0131 nedeniyle b\u00f6lgedeki her aksaman\u0131n Bat\u0131 sanayisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilece\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bak\u0131r, \u00e7inko ve kur\u015funda ise daha \u00e7ok maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131 ve stok dinamikleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00c7in’de mart ay\u0131nda resmi imalat PMI verisinin toparlanma g\u00f6stermesi sanayi metalleri i\u00e7in talep y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131smi destek verse de piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu y\u00fckseli\u015fleri daha \u00e7ok arz ve lojistik kaynakl\u0131 fiyatlama olarak de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Baz metallerde tezgah \u00fcst\u00fc piyasada ge\u00e7en hafta libre baz\u0131nda fiyatlar bak\u0131rda y\u00fczde 4,5, \u00e7inkoda y\u00fczde 5, al\u00fcminyumda y\u00fczde 5,4 ve kur\u015funda y\u00fczde 2,3 artarken, nikelde y\u00fczde 0,6 gerileme g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n ENERJ\u0130 GRUBUNDA H\u00dcRM\u00dcZ BO\u011eAZI ETK\u0130S\u0130 \u0130ZLEND\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Enerji grubunda haftan\u0131n ana belirleyicisi, Orta Do\u011fu’daki arz kesintileri ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k riskleri oldu. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Birol, b\u00f6lgede kaybedilen petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n 12 milyon varili a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve nisandaki kay\u0131plar\u0131n mart ay\u0131n\u0131n iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Birol, jet yak\u0131t\u0131 ve dizel ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere \u00fcr\u00fcn piyasalar\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6nce Asya’da, daha sonra Avrupa’da daha belirgin hissedilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Analistler, petrol piyasas\u0131nda bundan sonraki seyrin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131’ndaki ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde normale d\u00f6nece\u011fine, enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik hasar\u0131n art\u0131p artmayaca\u011f\u0131na ve b\u00fcy\u00fck t\u00fcketici ekonomilerin stratejik rezerv ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bununla birlikte, haftal\u0131k bazda Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 y\u00fczde 0,2 artarken, New York Ticaret Borsas\u0131’nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren do\u011fal gaz\u0131n \u0130ngiliz termal birimi (MMBtu) cinsinden fiyat\u0131 y\u00fczde 6,4 geriledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n TARIM EMT\u0130ALARINDA ENERJ\u0130 VE LOJ\u0130ST\u0130K MAL\u0130YETLER\u0130 ETK\u0130L\u0130 OLDU<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Tar\u0131m emtia piyasalar\u0131nda ise enerji maliyetleri, lojistik sorunlar ve girdi fiyatlar\u0131 belirleyici oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler G\u0131da ve Tar\u0131m \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn (FAO) G\u0131da Fiyat Endeksi martta ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2,4 y\u00fckselerek Eyl\u00fcl 2025’ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Tah\u0131l fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1,5 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu\u011fday fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fte ABD ve Avustralya’daki olumsuz \u00fcr\u00fcn tahminlerinin etkili oldu\u011fu, bitkisel ya\u011f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 5,1 ve \u015feker fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 7,2 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n FAO, s\u00f6z konusu sava\u015f\u0131n 40 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fmas\u0131 halinde y\u00fcksek enerji ve g\u00fcbre maliyetlerinin gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ekim kararlar\u0131n\u0131 da etkileyebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu geli\u015fmelerle birlikte Chicago Ticaret Borsas\u0131’nda kile ba\u015f\u0131na fiyatlar pirin\u00e7te y\u00fczde 1,3 ve soya fasulyesinde y\u00fczde 0,3 artarken, bu\u011fdayda y\u00fczde 1,2 ve m\u0131s\u0131rda y\u00fczde 2,2 geriledi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kahve taraf\u0131nda ise hem y\u00fcksek \u00e7ekirdek maliyetleri hem de zay\u0131f talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Artan kahve fiyatlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen baz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerin sat\u0131\u015f ve kar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle lojistik maliyetlerin daha da y\u00fckselebilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n ABD’de Intercontinental Exchange’te libre baz\u0131nda fiyatlar pamukta y\u00fczde 2 artarken, \u015fekerde y\u00fczde 5,1 ve kahvede y\u00fczde 1,9 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Kakaonun ton ba\u015f\u0131na fiyat\u0131 da haftay\u0131 y\u00fczde 2,7 y\u00fckseli\u015fle tamamlad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Emtia piyasalar\u0131nda tamamlanan haftada, ABD\/\u0130srail-\u0130ran Sava\u015f\u0131’na ili\u015fkin haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenirken, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 enerji arz\u0131 ve lojistik riskleri ile bu risklerin enflasyon ve faiz beklentilerine etkisi fiyatlamalarda belirleyici oldu. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmadan s\u00f6z konusu sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdirmeye istekli oldu\u011funa y\u00f6nelik haberler ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11085,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[242,1447,4756,2006,4383,4757],"class_list":["post-11084","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-altin","tag-altin-fiyati","tag-emtia-piyasalari","tag-fed","tag-hurmuz-bogazi","tag-jerome-powell"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trabzonmanset.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11084","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trabzonmanset.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trabzonmanset.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trabzonmanset.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trabzonmanset.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11084"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.trabzonmanset.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11084\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11086,"href":"https:\/\/www.trabzonmanset.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11084\/revisions\/11086"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trabzonmanset.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11085"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.trabzonmanset.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11084"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trabzonmanset.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11084"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.trabzonmanset.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11084"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}